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Arab sociologist Ibn Khaldun developed an original theory of political cy cles explaining the history of the Maghreb (Inayatullah 1997). Are these phenomena, which at first glance seem very diverse, actually related? In this book we examine the hypothesis that secular cycles—demographic social-political oscillations of very ...
SECULAR BULL & BEAR MARKETS PROFILE: 2016
Notes: The index and returns reflect the Dow Jones Industrial Average at year- end from Dow Jones & Company. The P/E ratio is based upon the S&P 500 as developed and presented by Robert Shiller (Yale; Irrational Exuberance). Bull & Bear. Market classifications are based upon Crestmont's assessment of cycles using ...
Secular Cycles in Reconstructed Sunspot Number Series
INTRODUCTION. To date, direct observations of the Sun have been conducted for a little more than 400 years. This made it possible to study the characteristics of 11 year cycles quite well and to establish that there are long term cycles known as secular cycles in changes of the height of 11 year cycles. For the first time, ...
Understanding Secular Stock Market Cycles
Oct 6, 2016 ... market cycles relates to extended periods, or eras, in the stock market. For the stock market, secular cycles are generally qualified as either bull or bear cycles. Bull cycles are periods when stock market returns are good and bear cycles reflect periods of weakness. That's where agreement among secular ...
minimums of secular activity cycles. (5) The ratio of the total sunspot area to the umbra area shows a long-term variation with a period about eight cycles and minimum in cycles № 16-17. (6) It has been indicated that the magnetic field intensity and sunspot area in the current cycle are related to the amplitude of the next ...
Jan 1, 2016 ... Abstract. Secular cycles are 2–3 century oscillations in population associated with periodic state breakdown. Turchin and Nefedov (2009) find two secular cycles in England: the Plantagenet (1150–1485) and. Tudor-Stuart (1485–1730). This paper proposes modified dating for these cycles (1070–1485 and ...
Turchin, Peter, and Sergey A. Nefedov. Secular Cycles. Princeton, NJ
Secular Cycles. Princeton, NJ: Princeton. University Press, 2009. vii -I- 349 pages . Cloth, $35.00. What is the motive force of history? Peter Turchin, a professor of ecology and evolu- tionary biology at the University of Connecticut, and Sergey Nefedov, a senior research scientist at the Institute of History and Archaeology of ...
Secular Cycles. We believe that one of the most important recent findings in the study of the long-term dynamic social processes was the discovery of the political -demo- graphic cycles as a basic feature of complex agrarian systems' dynamics. 1. The presence of political-demographic cycles in the pre-modern history of.
Secular Market Cycles – Fact or Illusion?
Oct 3, 2016 ... Conventional wisdom dictates that equity markets adhere to long-term secular cycles and that investors should adjust their allocations based on whether valuation metrics, such as the Shiller CAPE, are relatively high or low. But what if the notion of secular market cycles is misguided because, for example ...
Political instability may be a contributor in the coming decade
and S. A. Nefedov Secular Cycles. Princeton Univ. Press; 2009). In the United States, we have stagnating or declining real wages, a growing gap between rich and poor, overproduction of young graduates with advanced degrees, and exploding public debt. These seemingly disparate social indicators are actually related.
∑ Solar Activity Secular Cycles
that the revealed long term periodicities modulate the amplitude of secular cycles , the preferable duration of which can be 60 years, and the most preferable dura tion can be 88 years and, possibly, not less than 105 years. It is interesting to study the dynamics and form of secular cycles on the revealed preferable time scale.
Secular Labor Reallocation and Business Cycles
Secular Labor Reallocation and Business Cycles. ∗. Gabriel Chodorow-Reich. Johannes Wieland. Harvard University and NBER. UC San Diego and NBER. January 2017. Abstract. We revisit an old question: does industry labor reallocation affect the business cycle? Our empirical methodology exploits variation in a local ...
Secular stagnation or financial cycle drag?
Mar 7, 2017 ... The rest of my remarks are organised as follows. I will first summarise, in an intentionally highly stylised way, the key features of the two hypotheses. I will then provide a critique of the secular stagnation hypothesis and argue for the financial cycle drag alternative. Based on this, I will identify the key risks.
Profiting from market cycles
and loss for investors. Since 1900, investors have enjoyed three secular bull markets and endured four secular bear markets. With the exception of the 1921- 1929 secular bull market, secular market cycles have had a lifespan of between 16 to 20 years. Exhibit 1 – S&P 500 Secular Cycles. Secular Bear Market, 1905 - 1921 ...
The financial cycle, the debt trap and secular stagnation
Restricted. The financial cycle, the debt trap and secular stagnation. Claudio Borio. Head of the Monetary and Economic Department. 84th Annual General Meeting ...
The decline and fall of the Roman Empire, recurrent collapses of
SECULAR CYCLES: LONG-TERM OSCILLATIONS IN ECONOMIC. AND SOCIAL STRUCTURES OF AGRARIAN SOCIETIES. P. Turchin [email protected] edu. Department of Ecology and Evolutionary Biology, University of Connecticut. One particularly interesting dynamic pattern in history is the oscillation of centralization.
Secular Trends and Business Cycles: A Classification of Theories
cepted the secular trend but rejected the business cycle. The secular trend led Ricardo into his theory of value and its permanent tendency of profits to a minimum. It was a secular trend downwards of per-capita production. But Mal- thus placed less importance on his population cycle, since its dire results would occur at a.
Secular Labor Reallocation and Business Cycles
Secular Labor Reallocation and Business Cycles. ∗. Gabriel Chodorow-Reich. Johannes Wieland. Harvard University and NBER. UC San Diego and NBER. September 2015. Abstract. We study the effect of mean-preserving idiosyncratic industry shocks on business cycle outcomes. We develop an empirical methodology ...
Changes in climate and secular population cycles in China, 1000
Sep 1, 2010 ... The presence of recurrent secular population cycles. (at multi-decadal to centennial scales) in historical agrarian China has long been known. Population de- clines tended to occur at intervals of 100 to 300 years, and they often occurred in periods of historical down- turn marked by internecine wars that ...
Secular total solar irradiance trend during solar cycles 21â•ﬁ23
Mar 4, 2003 ... Citation: Willson, R. C., and A. V. Mordvinov, Secular total solar irradiance trend during solar cycles 21–23, Geophys. Res. Lett., 30(5), 1199, doi:10.1029/ 2002GL016038, 2003. 1. Introduction.  Monitoring TSI with sufficient precision and persis- tence for a climate database became possible when a new.